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COVID-19: Channels of transmission to food and agriculture














J. Schmidhuber, J. Pound & B. Qiao. 2020. COVID-19: Channels of transmission to food and agriculture. Rome, FAO.




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    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast in January that the global economy would grow by 3.3 percent in 2020, however its latest outlook, in April, now forecasts a contraction of 3.0 percent, with no upside scenarios and numerous risks. The scenario presented in this brief predicts that if the anticipated global recession, due to the effects of COVID-19, were to trigger a reduction in the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) of between two and ten percentage points in all countries in 2020, then the number of undernourished people in net food-importing countries would increase by 14.4 million to 80.3 million, with the majority of the increase coming from low-income countries. Economic stimulus in all countries must be focused on keeping the food supply chains functioning, while also protecting access to locally-, regionally- and globally-produced food. Stimulus measures that tackle the current menace to food access should emphasize efforts to build resilience into food systems to safeguard them against future economic slowdowns and downturns.
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    Based on the FAO’s latest forecast, world cereal production in 2020 is set at 2 790 million tonnes, which would surpass the record high reached in 2019 by as much as 3 percent (81.3 million tonnes) and which would be 5 percent above the five-year average from 2015–2019. The forecast is based on near-average supply prospects in the new season, which, however, remain uncertain due to possible climatic shocks and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic impact. In many parts of the world, local markets are bracing for the looming impacts of COVID-19 amid uncertainties related to demand, logistics and even access to food. Close monitoring of the market will be necessary for the next several months.
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    National agricultural census operations and COVID-19 2020
    The COVID-19 pandemic is also affecting agricultural census activities. Currently, 62 countries are preparing (45 countries) or have conducted (17 countries) censuses of agriculture in the WCA 2020 round. A rapid appraisal and informal consultations with national agricultural census authorities reveal that some 34 countries reported delays or suspension of several census activities. Countries that have started or were about to start fieldwork and census enumeration have put these activities on hold until the crisis is over. Most countries agreed that the full impact on the preparation and implementation of national censuses will depend on the evolution of the crisis.

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