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COVID-19 global economic recession: Avoiding hunger must be at the centre of the economic stimulus











FAO. 2020. ​COVID-19 global economic recession: Avoiding hunger must be at the centre of the economic stimulus. Rome. 




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    Booklet
    Simulating rising undernourishment during the COVID-19 pandemic economic downturn
    Technical note
    2020
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    This technical note describes the methodology and data used to obtain estimates of rising undernourishment, under three hypothetical scenarios of gross domestic product (GDP) growth reduction that could materialize based on different forecasts emerging in association with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It analyses optimistic, mild and pessimistic scenarios prospecting a reduction in GDP growth of, respectively, 2, 5 and 10 percentage points (p.p.). First, a GMM model over the 1995–2017 period is used to estimate elasticities of the per capita food supply and GDP growth reduction in low-and middle-income countries. Then, the simulated reduction in food supply due to economic deceleration is translated into an increase of the prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) using a calculator developed by the FAO Statistic Division. Results focus on 101 net food-importing countries in the low- and middle-income group, for which the elasticity estimated is statistically significant. Without protective measures in terms of redistribution of the available food supply, even under the optimistic scenario (-2 p.p. in GDP growth), the PoU might increase by 0.28 p.p., thus bringing an additional 14.4 million people in the ranks of the undernourished. Low-income food deficit countries will be those suffering more from this recession due to their vulnerable position characterized by low incomes and dependence on food imports for their subsistence.
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    Booklet
    Comparing crises: Great Lockdown versus Great Recession 2020
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    A comparison of the Great Lockdown of 2020 underway with the Great Recession of 2009, reveals some regularities, yet many differences. Notably, the shock associated with the Great Recession arose out of economy-wide stress, particularly high-income countries, while in direct contrast, the Great Lockdown was borne outside of the global economic system, and seemingly is set to leave most countries severely affected, high and low-income countries alike. Both crises, however, have led to similar impacts to economies throughout the world, with significant contractions to economic growth, economic activity and employment. For global food and agriculture, the Great Recession unfolded as a combination of two distinct crises that followed each other from 2007 to 2009. The initial 2007-2008 crisis was largely limited to food and agriculture, arising from a combination of supply and demand shocks within the global food sector. The 2009 crisis arose from an external demand side shock, brought about by the sharp contraction in overall economic activity in 2009, which is now known as the Great Recession. When referring to the Great Recession, this paper distinguishes two distinct sub-crises, i.e. the global food crisis of 2007-2008 and the global recession of 2009.
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    Brochure, flyer, fact-sheet
    Récession économique mondiale liée à la covid-19: la lutte contre la faim doit être au centre de la relance économique 2020
    En janvier dernier, le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) prévoyait une croissance de 3,3 pour cent de l’économie mondiale en 2020, mais dans ses dernières perspectives publiées en avril dernier, il annonce à présent une récession de 3 pour cent, sans scénarios de reprise et avec de nombreux risques. Les scénarios décrits dans la présente note de synthèse prévoient que, si la récession mondiale provoquée par l’épidémie de covid 19 devait entraîner une réduction du taux de croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB) comprise entre deux et dix pour cent dans tous les pays en 2020, l’augmentation du nombre de personnes sous-alimentées dans les pays importateurs nets de produits alimentaires se situerait entre 14,4 et 80,3 millions, principalement dans les pays à faible revenu. Dans tous les pays, la relance économique doit avoir pour principal objectif de permettre aux chaînes d’approvisionnement alimentaire de continuer à fonctionner, tout en protégeant l’accès aux aliments produits aux niveaux local, régional et mondial. Les mesures de relance qui visent à lutter contre les menaces pesant sur l’accès aux aliments doivent mettre l’accent sur les initiatives de renforcement de la résilience des systèmes alimentaires afin de les prémunir contre les ralentissements et les fléchissements économiques.

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