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BookletCOVID-19: Channels of transmission to food and agriculture 2020
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No results found.FAO is analysing and providing updates on the emerging COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on agricultural markets—effects that are still largely unknown. Most current assessments generally foresee a contraction in both supply of and demand for agricultural products, and point to possible disruptions in trade and logistics. On the supply side, widely different views remain on the duration of the shocks, the price dynamics, differential impacts between domestic and international markets, differences across countries and commodities, the likely paths of recovery, and the policy actions to remedy the various shock waves. On the demand side, there is near ubiquitous agreement that agricultural demand and trade would slow-down, with contractions stemming from a deceleration in overall economic activity (GDP growth) and rising rates of unemployment. While food and agricultural systems are exposed to both demand and supply side shocks (symmetric), these shocks are not expected to take place in parallel (asynchronous) since, inter alia, consumers can draw on savings, food stocks and safety nets. -
BookletSimulating rising undernourishment during the COVID-19 pandemic economic downturn
Technical note
2020Also available in:
No results found.This technical note describes the methodology and data used to obtain estimates of rising undernourishment, under three hypothetical scenarios of gross domestic product (GDP) growth reduction that could materialize based on different forecasts emerging in association with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It analyses optimistic, mild and pessimistic scenarios prospecting a reduction in GDP growth of, respectively, 2, 5 and 10 percentage points (p.p.). First, a GMM model over the 1995–2017 period is used to estimate elasticities of the per capita food supply and GDP growth reduction in low-and middle-income countries. Then, the simulated reduction in food supply due to economic deceleration is translated into an increase of the prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) using a calculator developed by the FAO Statistic Division. Results focus on 101 net food-importing countries in the low- and middle-income group, for which the elasticity estimated is statistically significant. Without protective measures in terms of redistribution of the available food supply, even under the optimistic scenario (-2 p.p. in GDP growth), the PoU might increase by 0.28 p.p., thus bringing an additional 14.4 million people in the ranks of the undernourished. Low-income food deficit countries will be those suffering more from this recession due to their vulnerable position characterized by low incomes and dependence on food imports for their subsistence. -
Journal, magazine, bulletinFood systems and COVID-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean
Impacts and opportunities in fresh food production
2020Also available in:
The agrifood sector, has not been immune to the Coronavirus, whose string of effects has interrupted the normal operation of food chains. In the agrifood sector, unprecedented problems have led to unprecedented challenges. In Latin America and the Caribbean, food production has not stopped; the workers, although with difficulties, appear at their workplaces. Therefore, when we evaluate in detail the impacts of COVID-19 on primary production, it seems evident that these have not been critical. However, we cannot lose sight of the coming agricultural seasons and monitor, with even more zeal, the disruptions in those sectors most vulnerable to this health, economic and social crisis. We have been foolish and stressed every time we have been able to do it that this crisis is a magnificent opportunity to rethink our production models. Due to their importance, the agrifood systems are an obligatory starting point of the long process of recovery and transformation that lies ahead.
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