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COVID-19 global economic recession: Avoiding hunger must be at the centre of the economic stimulus











FAO. 2020. ​COVID-19 global economic recession: Avoiding hunger must be at the centre of the economic stimulus. Rome. 




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    Brochure, flyer, fact-sheet
    Récession économique mondiale liée à la covid-19: la lutte contre la faim doit être au centre de la relance économique 2020
    En janvier dernier, le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) prévoyait une croissance de 3,3 pour cent de l’économie mondiale en 2020, mais dans ses dernières perspectives publiées en avril dernier, il annonce à présent une récession de 3 pour cent, sans scénarios de reprise et avec de nombreux risques. Les scénarios décrits dans la présente note de synthèse prévoient que, si la récession mondiale provoquée par l’épidémie de covid 19 devait entraîner une réduction du taux de croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB) comprise entre deux et dix pour cent dans tous les pays en 2020, l’augmentation du nombre de personnes sous-alimentées dans les pays importateurs nets de produits alimentaires se situerait entre 14,4 et 80,3 millions, principalement dans les pays à faible revenu. Dans tous les pays, la relance économique doit avoir pour principal objectif de permettre aux chaînes d’approvisionnement alimentaire de continuer à fonctionner, tout en protégeant l’accès aux aliments produits aux niveaux local, régional et mondial. Les mesures de relance qui visent à lutter contre les menaces pesant sur l’accès aux aliments doivent mettre l’accent sur les initiatives de renforcement de la résilience des systèmes alimentaires afin de les prémunir contre les ralentissements et les fléchissements économiques.
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    Booklet
    COVID-19: Channels of transmission to food and agriculture 2020
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    FAO is analysing and providing updates on the emerging COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on agricultural markets—effects that are still largely unknown. Most current assessments generally foresee a contraction in both supply of and demand for agricultural products, and point to possible disruptions in trade and logistics. On the supply side, widely different views remain on the duration of the shocks, the price dynamics, differential impacts between domestic and international markets, differences across countries and commodities, the likely paths of recovery, and the policy actions to remedy the various shock waves. On the demand side, there is near ubiquitous agreement that agricultural demand and trade would slow-down, with contractions stemming from a deceleration in overall economic activity (GDP growth) and rising rates of unemployment. While food and agricultural systems are exposed to both demand and supply side shocks (symmetric), these shocks are not expected to take place in parallel (asynchronous) since, inter alia, consumers can draw on savings, food stocks and safety nets.
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    Booklet
    Simulating rising undernourishment during the COVID-19 pandemic economic downturn
    Technical note
    2020
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    This technical note describes the methodology and data used to obtain estimates of rising undernourishment, under three hypothetical scenarios of gross domestic product (GDP) growth reduction that could materialize based on different forecasts emerging in association with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It analyses optimistic, mild and pessimistic scenarios prospecting a reduction in GDP growth of, respectively, 2, 5 and 10 percentage points (p.p.). First, a GMM model over the 1995–2017 period is used to estimate elasticities of the per capita food supply and GDP growth reduction in low-and middle-income countries. Then, the simulated reduction in food supply due to economic deceleration is translated into an increase of the prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) using a calculator developed by the FAO Statistic Division. Results focus on 101 net food-importing countries in the low- and middle-income group, for which the elasticity estimated is statistically significant. Without protective measures in terms of redistribution of the available food supply, even under the optimistic scenario (-2 p.p. in GDP growth), the PoU might increase by 0.28 p.p., thus bringing an additional 14.4 million people in the ranks of the undernourished. Low-income food deficit countries will be those suffering more from this recession due to their vulnerable position characterized by low incomes and dependence on food imports for their subsistence.

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