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粮食展望―2005年4月第1期












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    粮食展望 - 第3期, 2005年9月 2005
    自6月份上次报告以来,粮农组织对2005年世界谷物产量的预测略有下调。尽管全球谷物收成低于2004年创纪录的水平,但预计仍将高于过去五年的平均水平。预计小麦和粗粮的产量将下降,但预测稻米产量将创历史新高。 发达国家将占2005年全球谷物产量预计下降幅度的大部分,主要原因是粗粮收成减少。在发展中国家,预计谷物产量将略高于2004年的丰产水平。
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    粮食展望―2005年6月第2期 2005
    要 点 下载全文 2005年全球谷物收成前景仍然看好。最新产量预测显示将比2004年创纪录的产量有所降低,但低于先前预测的水平。 粮农组织对2005/06销售季节世界谷物贸易量的首次预测显示略低于修正后的2004/05年度的水平,主要原因是小麦进口需求量下降。 预计2005/06年度全球谷物利用量有一定程度的增加,加之预测产量下降,将导致全球谷物库存量在2004/05年度大幅增加之后出现下滑。但预测主要出口国持有的库存量将增加。 谷物价格仍大大低于一年前的水平。这主要是由于小麦和粗粮的出口供应量大且2004年次季稻谷作物收成的季节性下跌压力。 预测2005年世界奶类产量增加,主要是在发展中国家,但由于主要出口国供给减少,价格仍将居高不下。 2004/05年度油料作物创纪录丰收限制了油籽和油饼粉价格上涨的潜力,但预计油和油脂的价格由于需求旺盛和库存量低于正常水平而将继续坚挺。 预计2005年世界豆类作物将再获丰收,但比去年的丰收水平有所减产。 预测2004/05年度世界食糖产量增加,但落后于消费量 的增长。因此,食糖价格仍将居高不下。 2004年年底开始回升的咖啡价格在2005年第一季度出现飙升,到5月底比一年前上涨了近60%。 在过去几个月中化肥价格继续上涨。5月底尿素报价比去年同期上涨74%至90%。
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    粮食展望 - 第4期, 2005年12月 2005
    9月的报告以来,粮农组织对2005年世界谷物产量的最新预测有较大幅度的上调,至20.05亿吨,比去年创纪录的收成下降2.4%。除非洲和南美洲部分地区外,多数区域的谷物收成令人满意。

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