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粮食展望 - 第3期, 2005年9月












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    粮食展望―2005年4月第1期 2005
    预计2005年谷物取得好收成 2005年谷物作物的早期前景显 示将比去年的创记录水平减产,但 仍预计继续高于过去五年的平均水 平。根据田间作物的情况和今年晚些 时候有待播种的作物的种植计划,如 果2005年农作季节剩下的时间里天气 正常,粮农组织对世界谷物产量的第 一次预测为19.71亿吨(包括以碾米 计的稻米),约比2004年下降4%。 预计减少的部分基本上全部来自北美 洲和欧洲的主要生产(和出口)国, 尽管到目前为止那里的田间作物总体 上令人满意,但预计谷物总面积却略 有减少,且单产低于去年的创纪录水 平。预计发展中国家的谷物产量仍基 本没有变化。初步预测亚洲的产量将 有所提高,但可能会被其它地区的发 预计2005年谷物取得好收成 2005年谷物作物的早期前景显 示将比去年的创记录水平减产,但 仍预计继续高于过去五年的平均水 平。根据田间作物的情况和今年晚&# 20123; 时候有待播种的作物的种植计划,如 果2005年农作季节剩下的时间里天气 正常,粮农组织对世界 谷物产量的&# 31532; 一次预测为19.71亿吨(包括以碾米 计的稻米),约比2004年下降4%。 预计减少的部分基本上全部来自北&# 32654; 洲和欧洲的主要生产(和出口)国&# 65292; 尽管到目前为止那里的田间作物总&# 20307; 上令人满意,但预计谷物总面积却&# 30053; 有减少,且单产低于去年的创
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    粮食展望―2005年6月第2期 2005
    要 点 下载全文 2005年全球谷物收成前景仍然看好。最新产量预测显示将比2004年创纪录的产量有所降低,但低于先前预测的水平。 粮农组织对2005/06销售季节世界谷物贸易量的首次预测显示略低于修正后的2004/05年度的水平,主要原因是小麦进口需求量下降。 预计2005/06年度全球谷物利用量有一定程度的增加,加之预测产量下降,将导致全球谷物库存量在2004/05年度大幅增加之后出现下滑。但预测主要出口国持有的库存量将增加。 谷物价格仍大大低于一年前的水平。这主要是由于小麦和粗粮的出口供应量大且2004年次季稻谷作物收成的季节性下跌压力。 预测2005年世界奶类产量增加,主要是在发展中国家,但由于主要出口国供给减少,价格仍将居高不下。 2004/05年度油料作物创纪录丰收限制了油籽和油饼粉价格上涨的潜力,但预计油和油脂的价格由于需求旺盛和库存量低于正常水平而将继续坚挺。 预计2005年世界豆类作物将再获丰收,但比去年的丰收水平有所减产。 预测2004/05年度世界食糖产量增加,但落后于消费量 的增长。因此,食糖价格仍将居高不下。 2004年年底开始回升的咖啡价格在2005年第一季度出现飙升,到5月底比一年前上涨了近60%。 在过去几个月中化肥价格继续上涨。5月底尿素报价比去年同期上涨74%至90%。
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    粮食展望 - 第4期, 2005年12月 2005
    9月的报告以来,粮农组织对2005年世界谷物产量的最新预测有较大幅度的上调,至20.05亿吨,比去年创纪录的收成下降2.4%。除非洲和南美洲部分地区外,多数区域的谷物收成令人满意。

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