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Rice Market Monitor - May 2003

Year of publication 2003

Place of publication Rome, Italy ;

Pages 12p.

Author FAO

Publisher FAO ;

Product type Newsletter

Series title Rice Market Monitor

Series number Vol. VI No. 2

Synopsis (short abstract) With the 2002 paddy season virtually concluded, this issue of the FAO Rice Market Monitor reviews the major developments that have influenced the international rice market during the year. On the supply side, adverse weather conditions was a dominant factor which curbed production in most continents, but especially in Asia, large parts of Africa and Oceania. In particular, irregular and scarce monsoon rains and weak post-monsoon rains were responsible for poor crops in India, while the recurrence of an El Niño event depressed output in several countries, although its effects were generally milder than in 1997.

Language English

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    Based on the preliminary harvest results in the southern hemisphere and the planting intentions in the northern hemisphere, overall global rice output in 2003 is tentatively forecast at 396 million tonnes (592 million tonnes in paddy terms), 2 percent higher than the previous year’s depressed level. However, this figure is still highly tentative, since the final outcome will depend largely on the timing, extent and distribution of the Asian monsoon rainfall, which has an important bearin g on the global outcome...
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    Planting of the 2001 paddy season is underway in some of the Northern Hemisphere countries but the bulk of the crop is yet to be planted pending the arrival of Monsoon rains on th e Asian continent. In the Southern Hemisphere and around the equatorial belt, this season’s main paddy crop is nearing completion. Following weak prices in the past two years, some countries are expected to lower rice area and to switch to more remunerative crops. Nonetheless, pending additional information and assuming normal seasonal weather patterns, world paddy production in 2001 is expected to decline only marginally from the previous season.
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    With the bulk of the 2007 season paddy crops already harvested, the FAO forecast of world paddy production in 2007 has been lifted by 2 million tonnes to 645 million tonnes (430 million tonnes in milled rice eq.), which represents a modest increase of 4 million tonnes, or 0.6 percent, from 2006. Virtually all of the year-to-year world expansion is expected to arise in Asia, while contractions are anticipated in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Oceania, where crops have been co nstrained by adverse weather often associated with “La Niña” conditions. Production in Asia is now foreseen to expand by about 5 million tonnes to 585 million tonnes, spearheaded by large absolute gains in China, India, Indonesia and Myanmar, but also in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines and Thailand. By contrast, Bangladesh, Cambodia, DPR of Korea, the Rep. of Korea, Sri Lanka and Turkey are forecast to face a decline. Exceptionally wet conditions pre vailed in large parts of Africa, hindering crops in most locations and causing production in the region to fall to an expected 21.6 million tonnes, slightly below the good 2006 performance. Much of the decline is foreseen to concentrate in Egypt, but also in Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau, Mali and Nigeria. By contrast, Benin, Chad, Guinea, Madagascar, Mozambique, Senegal and Tanzania are set to harvest larger crops.
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