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GIEWS Special Alert No. 352 - Southern Africa, 23 April 2024

El Niño-linked drought to cause cereal production declines and spur a surge in import needs












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    GIEWS Special Alert No. 349 - West Africa-Sahel, 16 May 2022
    Food insecurity at unprecedented levels in most coastal and Sahelian countries
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    An estimated 27.3 million people are facing acute food insecurity between March and May 2022. This number is projected to increase to an unprecedented 38.3 million between June and August 2022 if humanitarian interventions are not scaled up. The alarming high level of food insecurity is due to localized shortfalls in cereal production in 2021, worsening conflicts, high food prices and macroeconomic challenges compounded by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of food insecure people could increase above initial projections in the second half of 2022 as spikes in food and fuel prices, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, are likely to worsen access to food. Further aggravating risk factors to food insecurity are the high prices of agricultural inputs, notably fertilizers, persisting insecurity and forecast localized unfavourable weather conditions that could have additional negative impacts on agricultural production.
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    GIEWS Special Alert No. 343 - Southern Africa - 26 February 2018
    Erratic rains and an intense dry period in January lowers 2018 cereal production prospects
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    Erratic precipitation and well below-average rains in January have lowered Southern Africa’s overall 2018 cereal production prospects. Current national maize stocks are forecast at above-average levels due to the record outputs in 2017; this should partly cushion the expected production declines in 2018. Reduced harvests are still foreseen to intensify food insecurity in 2018, increasing the number of people in need of assistance; however, humanitarian needs expected to remain below the levels of 2016.
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    GIEWS Special Alert No. 350 - Somalia, 27 September 2022
    Unless humanitarian assistance is urgently scaled up, famine is expected in late 2022 due to unprecedented multi‑season drought
    2022
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    Famine is expected to occur in Bay Region between October and December 2022, if humanitarian assistance is not urgently scaled up. About 6.7 million people, over 40 percent of the total population, are projected to face severe acute food insecurity, including over 300 000 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). The dire food insecurity situation is the consequence of a prolonged drought that began in late 2020, compounded by the protracted conflict and hikes in international prices of foodstuffs and fuel caused by the war in Ukraine. As meteorological forecasts point to below-average October–December 2022 “Deyr” rains, food security conditions are expected to deteriorate.

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