Crop Prospects and Food Situation - no. 4,  december 2012

Trade and Markets Division

Crop Prospects and Food Situation - no. 4, december 2012

Year of publication 2012

Author Trade and Markets Division

Product type Document

Edition 1

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Synopsis (short abstract) Firmer production estimates for 2012 confirm tightening wheat and maize supplies while the outlook for rice remains positive. In spite of a contraction in overall cereal utilization in 2012/13, the world cereal stock-to-use ratio is projected to decline by 2 percentage points from the previous season. International prices of all major cereals, except rice, remain well above last year. For wheat and maize, while prices have stabilized in recent weeks, unfavourable weather for 2013 crops in several important regions is a concern. Aggregate cereal production of LIFDCs in 2012 has been revised upwards following a recovery in Western Africa and increased output in the Far East. Consequently, reduced imports are expected in 2012/13...

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As the year draws to a close, FAO’s latest estimate confirms a record high global cereal production in 2011, which should be sufficient to cover the expected increase in utilization in 2011/12 and also allow a moderate replenishment of world reserves. n International grain prices remained mostly under downward pressure in November, reflecting the confirmation of a strong recovery in production amid deteriorating world economic prospects and a stronger US dollar. n Based on the estimated increase in import requirements, the cereal import bill of LIFDCs for 2011/12 marketing season is forecast by FAO at a record level...

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