Preliminary Pages

Executive summary

At the 1996 World Food Summit, the Heads of State and Government reaffirmed the right of everyone to have access to safe and nutritious food, consistent with the right to adequate food and the fundamental right of everyone to be free from hunger (World Food Summit, 1996). To achieve this commitment, agrifood systems will need to be transformed to sustainably deliver safe and nutritious food for all. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ (FAO) Strategic Framework focuses on this transformation through achieving four pillars: better production, better nutrition, a better environment, and a better life (FAO, 2021). To “realize our shared vision for a better world” (UN Food Systems Summit, 2021) and to be better prepared to mitigate potential shocks and disruptions, we need to develop and maintain a deep understanding of the future opportunities, challenges and threats to our agrifood systems. The FAO food safety foresight programme is geared towards the proactive identification, evaluation and prioritization of emerging trends and drivers within and around agrifood systems that can have food safety implications (Figure 1). This will lead to improved and timely strategic planning to better manage potential risks and be ready to take advantage of new opportunities.

Figure 1. Major drivers and trends relevant to agrifood systems and food safety

As agrifood systems are transformed to meet the 2030 Agenda, foresight approaches enable identification of emerging drivers and trends, present both within and around agrifood systems, that have implications for the systems in general and particularly food safety, a central component of agrifood systems.

This publication explores a selection of the most relevant drivers and trends identified through the FAO food safety foresight programme. The methodology applied is described in the introductory chapter, while the remainder of the publication consists of a compilation of short briefs describing emerging areas. The briefs are not meant to be exhaustive reviews, but rather provide a concise overview of the topics of interest in terms of what they are, why they are important from a food safety perspective, and how to take stock of the issues moving forward. While for some of the drivers and trends the food safety implications are apparent, for others these may not be as obvious. An overview of the various drivers and trends discussed in the publication is given below.

  • Climate change – increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, greater frequency of extreme events, and others – is disrupting our production capabilities to produce enough nutritious food to feed the rising global population. In this report we outline some of the multi-faceted impacts of climate change on various food safety hazards (both biological and chemical). An increased preparedness to address the impact of climate change on food safety will not only benefit food security, but also will help foster resilience in agrifood systems.
  • Today, consumer behaviours are shifting in response to a multitude of factors, such as climate change, a focus on improving health especially amid the ongoing pandemic, concerns about the impact of food production on environmental sustainability, rising incomes, amongst many others. These shifts are driving changes in the food purchasing and consumption habits of consumers. Such changes can also be accompanied by potential food safety risks, which will need to be evaluated in order to protect the health of consumers. Some trends in changing consumer demands are discussed in this publication together with the food safety implications associated with them.
  • New food sources and food production systems are increasingly being explored with the goal of achieving improved environmental sustainability and/or nutritional benefits. The word ‘new’ here applies to recently discovered techniques and materials as well as to food that has been historically consumed in specific regions of the world but has recently materialized in the global retail space. In this regard, this report discusses the food safety implications for:
  • – Farming of edible insects, for both human food and animal feed, has gained considerable interest globally owing to numerous potential nutritional, environmental and economic benefits. Likewise, production of seaweed or macroalgae is also rising globally, especially offshore in integrated operations that combine seaweed production with other aquaculture activities, such as farmed shellfish. Market demand for jellyfish as a food source that is high in protein content is also expected to grow. As these new food sources make inroads into new markets, thorough assessment of food safety hazards is needed to establish appropriate hygiene and manufacturing processes as well as relevant regulatory frameworks.
  • – As consumer diets are slowly shifting to include fewer animal-based food products, plant-based alternatives to animal derived products (meat, dairy, eggs, and seafood) are gaining popularity. There are certain unique food safety aspects associated with plant-based alternatives which are discussed in the publication.
  • – Cell-based food production technology is an evolving area, with various methodologies now well characterized and sufficiently matured to initiate production and commercialization of cell-based food products in some parts of the world. Key considerations for this growing sector are discussed in this report, including several potential food safety hazards that have been identified and documented in literature.
  • Amid rapid urbanization, growing food in urban spaces is gaining attention in the face of global food security concerns and rising urban populations. While urban agriculture entails producing food within and around cities and towns, in this report we focus on agriculture activities carried out within urban areas, or intra-urban agriculture. Several different types of urban farms of varying scales, commercial and non-commercial, can be found in different parts of the world, from backyard gardens and community farms to innovative indoor vertical farming approaches (hydroponic, aquaponic, or aeroponic systems). Some key food safety aspects of agriculture within urban areas are discussed as well as the need for establishing mechanisms for good governance and appropriate regulatory frameworks specific to urban food systems.
  • Technological innovations have greatly helped progress our ability to detect contaminants in food and assist in outbreak investigations, improve predictive analytics to identify potential risks, and enhance traceability of food supplies. The food sector is undergoing rapid evolution in terms of food packaging, new technologies (such as nanotechnology), and new methods for producing food (such as 3D printing) – all of which need careful evaluations of the benefits and threats they bring from a food safety perspective. Application of automation, Artificial Intelligence, big data, and Blockchain technology have the potential to enhance food safety management in the shifting landscape of agrifood systems, but can also raise concerns with regard to equitable access adoption and data privacy. In addition, scientific advancements are also bound to transform food safety risk assessments and it is paramount for food safety and trade that the global community is prepared to follow such progress.
  • Microbiomes in agrifood systems and along the food chain are not isolated and can interact with each other. The human gut microbiome is exposed to microorganisms and compounds present in the diet. The potential of food additives, residues of veterinary drugs, food and environmental contaminants to induce changes in the gut microbiome, and any possible consequences to the host health are increasingly being considered for food safety risk assessments. New knowledge in this area will also inform decisions on whether and how to revise chemical risk assessment and regulatory science processes. Furthermore, there are specific concerns related to the transfer of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) from food organisms to the gut microbiome or the increase of AMR resulting from exposure to antimicrobials or low-level veterinary residues.
  • The concept of circular economy is promoted to address concerns about environmental sustainability of food production, depletion of natural resources, and others. In contrast to a linear concept, circular economy emphasizes a systems-based approach that encompasses activities and processes geared towards sustainable management of materials within a closed loop system. While this concept holds promise for the agrifood systems, there are various unique food safety aspects that need to be considered before it is made fit-for-purpose for applications in the various quarters of the food sector. These specific food safety implications are explored by focusing on the use and re-use of plastics in the food sector.
  • Food fraud is a complex issue that tends to evoke strong consumer responses and can have potential food safety implications. While the current narrative around the issue focuses on the trend of ever-increasing food fraud instances arising from opportunists taking advantage of the complicated nature of agrifood systems, the foresight brief on this topic attempts to re-center the discussion on increased awareness and the concept of trust built within food control systems. The brief also provides a snapshot of regulatory strategies that can be used to address food fraud and retain trust in agrifood systems.

The agrifood systems must be, and sometimes already are, transformed to allow an ever increasing and ever more urban population to access safe and nutritious food. How agrifood systems evolve and transform over the coming decades will have profound global implications for our health and socioeconomic wellbeing as well as for the environment. The global awareness, capabilities and capacities to manage food safety need to stay in-tune with this progression to ensure that the growing world population are adequately fed. Food safety will continue to face challenges from both within and outside agrifood systems. Foresight provides a mechanism to proactively identify and navigate these challenges as well as emerging opportunities. This publication showcases a selection of emerging areas of interest, as identified through the FAO food safety foresight programme, and is targeted at a broad audience – from policymakers, researchers, food business operators, private sector to all of us, consumers as food safety is everyone’s business