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GIEWS Special Alert No. 352 - Southern Africa, 23 April 2024

El Niño-linked drought to cause cereal production declines and spur a surge in import needs












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    GIEWS Special Alert No. 343 - Southern Africa - 26 February 2018
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    Erratic precipitation and well below-average rains in January have lowered Southern Africa’s overall 2018 cereal production prospects. Current national maize stocks are forecast at above-average levels due to the record outputs in 2017; this should partly cushion the expected production declines in 2018. Reduced harvests are still foreseen to intensify food insecurity in 2018, increasing the number of people in need of assistance; however, humanitarian needs expected to remain below the levels of 2016.
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    Famine is expected to occur in Bay Region between October and December 2022, if humanitarian assistance is not urgently scaled up. About 6.7 million people, over 40 percent of the total population, are projected to face severe acute food insecurity, including over 300 000 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). The dire food insecurity situation is the consequence of a prolonged drought that began in late 2020, compounded by the protracted conflict and hikes in international prices of foodstuffs and fuel caused by the war in Ukraine. As meteorological forecasts point to below-average October–December 2022 “Deyr” rains, food security conditions are expected to deteriorate.
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