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FPMA Bulletin #11. 10 December 2015

Monthly Report on Food Price Trends










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    International prices of wheat and maize continued to decline in May, while rice prices increased further. The downward trend in wheat prices was mostly due to ample global supplies and subdued import demand, while an expected record crop in Brazil and higher production in the United States of America were largely behind the decline in maize prices. The extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative also contributed to softening world prices. By contrast, international rice quotations continued their upward trend in May, as previous deals with Asian buyers were executed and supplies tightened in some exporters, such as Viet Nam and Pakistan. In most countries monitored by FAO, domestic staple food prices in May 2023 remained above their year‑earlier levels. Conflict and insecurity, adverse weather, high prices of agricultural inputs, elevated distribution costs as well as currency weaknesses continue to be the major drivers. Coarse grain prices remained considerably high in East and West Africa, while harvests eased the pressure on maize prices in Southern Africa and South America. In Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia countries and East Asia, ample stocks and supplies from ongoing harvests contributed to the softening of wheat and wheat flour prices. Meanwhile, in East Asia, domestic rice prices increased in major exporting countries despite harvest pressures weighing on prices in other countries of the subregion.
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    International prices of coarse grains fell in April as maize harvests in Argentina and Brazil helped ease pressure on maize markets. By contrast, wheat prices edged upwards as global supply tightness persisted amidst the significantly reduced exports from Ukraine due to war-related impacts on export supply chains. For rice, strong Asian demand and weather setbacks in the Americas drove international prices up during April. In West Africa, new record high prices of coarse grains were reported in several countries, driven by a seasonal uptick in demand, lower cross‑border trade flows and higher international commodity prices. Conflicts in the Sahel and weak currencies in coastal countries added upward pressure on domestic prices. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains remained firm or increased further in April and continued to be well above their year-earlier levels across the subregion. Exceptionally high price levels continued to prevail in South Sudan and the Sudan. In Far East Asia, in Sri Lanka, prices of rice and wheat flour increased further in April to new highs mostly due to the sustained effects of precipitous currency depreciation and the below-average 2022 “Maha” crop output. In South America, prices of wheat in April remained significantly higher year on year and at record highs in some countries, owing to strong international demand in exporting countries and elevated international quotations in net-importing countries.
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    International wheat and maize prices increased slightly in October, underpinned by strong import demand. However, ample global supplies and expectations of bumper crops kept average prices below their year-earlier levels. By contrast, quotations of rice continued to decline, as a result of new crop harvest and weak import demand.

    In Central America and the Caribbean, maize and bean prices continued to decline significantly with the new harvest, particularly in Honduras and Nicaragua, while they spiked in the southwestern areas of Haiti, the worst hit by Hurricane Matthew.

    In Africa, coarse grain prices continued to decline in South Sudan, while in Nigeria the start of early harvest contained the increasing trend of the past several months. Prices in these countries were still, however, two to three times higher than the corresponding month last year. Prices remained at high levels also in several importing countries of Southern Africa on account of overall tight reg ional supplies.

    In Asia, rice prices declined or remained stable in most countries, while they continued to increase sharply and reached record highs in Bangladesh, underpinned by tight market availability.

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