Countries follow distinct trajectories in how food price inflation affects their food security outcomes. Despite facing comparable global food price pressures, countries demonstrate remarkable variation in domestic food price inflation rates and food security. This heterogeneity can help identify effective policy interventions that have successfully mitigated food price pressures and protected food security. While Chapter 3 examined general relationships between food price inflation and food insecurity outcomes, this section analyses distinct patterns across countries to better understand if and what policies have helped maintain food security despite inflationary pressure. An analysis of 153 countries from 2015 to 2023 reveals that, even among those with initially comparable levels of food security, outcomes vary significantly: while some countries managed to maintain relative stability despite rising inflation, others experienced worsening food security outcomes (Figure 4.5).
FIGURE 4.5 Distinctive trajectories of food security and food price inflation, 2015–2023
SOURCE: Mamidanna, S., Ignaciuk, A. & Carrasco Azzini, G. (forthcoming). A global analysis of policy patterns across divergent food security trajectories under food price inflation – Background paper for The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Working Paper 25-08. Rome, FAO.
Countries are categorized based on the 2023 prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in four groups: i) low (72 countries); ii) lower-medium (33 countries); iii) upper-medium (33 countries); and iv) high food insecure (15 countries). This ensures that countries are compared with peers facing similar initial food security conditions, acknowledging that any percentage change in food insecurity has fundamentally different implications for food-insecure versus food-secure populations.
Across all four baseline categories, three consistent trajectory patterns emerged with distinctive inflation–food security relationships. The first identified pattern shows minimal change in food security, despite moderate to severe food price inflation increases. The second exhibits deteriorating food security with varying levels of food price inflation, indicating challenges. The third displays unique dynamics specific to each baseline group, ranging from extreme deterioration to significant improvement in food security, despite food price inflation pressures. Correlation coefficients between food price inflation and food insecurity ranged from positive (0.58) to negative (−0.45) across these trajectory groups.126
Despite facing high-inflation volatility, some countries have managed to achieve marginal improvements in food security, while others have experienced significant setbacks. In the low food insecurity baseline category, 35 countries slightly improved food security despite annual food price inflation surging from 2.33 percent in 2015 to 10.75 percent in 2023. Similarly, 13 countries in the lower-medium food insecurity category achieved minor food insecurity reductions, despite extreme food price inflation increases from 3.94 percent to 21.75 percent in the same period. In contrast, among countries with upper-medium food insecurity, 16 nations experienced substantial increases in food insecurity, associated with food price inflation spikes from 3.74 percent to 17.13 percent. These latter cases exhibited the strongest positive correlations between inflation and food insecurity.
Analysis of over 10 000 policy records and 35 policy instruments covering market management, production support and trade reveals distinctive patterns across different food security trajectories (Figure 4.6).ay Price controls and production subsidies are more common in lower-medium and high food-insecure countries, suggesting varied strategies to combat food insecurity. Export restrictions show an inverse pattern, with higher implementation rates in low food-insecure countries and decreasing presence as baseline food insecurity rises. Import policies are widely implemented across most country groupings, though their specific patterns differ based on food security trajectory.126
FIGURE 4.6 Observed policy implementation rates across countries by food insecurity (2023 levels) and trajectory group
SOURCE: Mamidanna, S., Ignaciuk, A. & Carrasco Azzini, G. (forthcoming). A global analysis of policy patterns across divergent food security trajectories under food price inflation – Background paper for The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Working Paper 25-08. Rome, FAO.
Lower-medium and high food-insecure countries tended to apply more price control measures and provide more subsidies for agricultural production. Price control measures were higher in lower-medium food-insecure countries (25.3 percent) and high food-insecure countries (30 percent), particularly among those on declining food security trajectories with moderate food price inflation. Among high food-insecure countries, production subsidies showed statistically significant differences, with the highest implementation rates (37.2 percent) in those experiencing deteriorating food security with mild inflation. These subsidies were also significant in lower-medium food-insecure countries (23.2 percent) that exhibited improving food security despite severe food price inflation.
Low food-insecure countries with stable or improving food security tended to adopt a more strategic mix of trade policy instruments, in contrast to high food-insecure countries where the use of such instruments was more limited. Export restrictions were more frequently observed in low food-insecure countries (23 to 29 percent) with stable or improving conditions, with the use of these measures declining as baseline food insecurity increased. Among high food-insecure countries, those experiencing deteriorating conditions alongside mild food price inflation had markedly higher rates of import restrictions (37.2 percent) compared to those where food security improved after an initial decline (5.4 percent), despite facing severe food price inflation. A similar trend was evident in lower-medium food-insecure countries, where import tariff liberalization was more common in contexts of declining food security (38.9 percent) than it was in those countries showing recovery after earlier setbacks (4.2 percent). These patterns point to a largely reactive application of trade policies, which may contribute to their limited effectiveness in improving food security outcomes.
Association rule learningaz is used to identify recurring policy patterns and combinations that consistently appear within different trajectory groups, providing insights into policy associations without implying causation. The relationship between policy implementation and food security trajectories presents significant analytical challenges due to both endogeneity concerns and data limitations. Higher policy implementation rates may reflect responses to deteriorating conditions rather than causal factors, while absence of policy records could indicate either confirmed absence or missing information.
Open trade policies are associated more frequently with stable or improving trajectories in low food-insecure countries. Countries in this group with stable food security despite food price inflation are more likely to have free or preferential trade agreements combined with no records of food stock management (lift: 1.60, confidence: 80 percent).ba They also show patterns linking competition policies and import tariffs (lift: 1.52, confidence: 76 percent). Countries with improved food security under strong food price inflation more frequently use policies that ease export restrictions. These patterns suggest that maintaining open trade channels through formal agreements, while limiting selective market interventions, may have contributed to improved food security outcomes in the face of food price inflation.
In lower-medium food-insecure countries on improving trajectories, a balanced mix of production support measures – combined with limited market managementbb and export restrictions – was commonly observed. Countries that achieved better food security outcomes despite severe food price inflation often exhibited policy patterns characterized by adoption of production subsidies without accompanying price controls (lift: 1.97; confidence: 67 percent), as well as government procurement through imports.
In contrast, countries experiencing worsening food security were more likely to apply fertilizer-specific import tariffs without the use of export taxes as a policy instrument (lift: 1.56; confidence: 90 percent). A common pattern among countries on declining trajectories included the use of multiple policy instruments aimed at restricting exports, such as bans and quotas, and easing imports (lift: 1.58; confidence: 91 percent), along with a broader set of production support measures and fewer social protection interventions (lift: 1.35; confidence: 78 percent).
In upper-medium food-insecure countries, a combination of both restrictive and liberalizing trade measures was commonly observed alongside declining food security trajectories. In contexts of moderate inflation, countries experiencing worsening food security often pursued policies that removed import restrictions. In these cases, government procurement through imports was frequently implemented without parallel efforts to ease export restrictions (lift: 1.73; confidence: 61 percent).
Among countries facing strong food price inflation and deteriorating food security, the most prevalent policy combination involved agricultural input support without accompanying food stock interventions (lift: 1.44; confidence: 68 percent). These patterns indicate that trade-focused approaches, when not complemented by adequate social protection systems, are observed alongside less favourable food security outcomes in settings with moderate levels of food insecurity.
