- ➔ The potential exists to feed the 9.7 billion people predicted to make up the world’s population by 2050, and the approximately 10.3 billion people when the global population is projected to peak around 2085. The conditions under which this food production takes place will determine the associated environmental, social and economic costs.
- ➔ With a total of more than 4 billion ha globally, a substantial amount of land is suitable for cultivation. However, the potential for agricultural expansion is limited, as further land conversion to cropland would impact other ecosystems, including forests, grasslands and wetlands.
- ➔ It should be emphasized that the assessment of land suitability for cultivation is based only on the characteristics of the land and does not consider existing land use and whether any conversion to cropland is acceptable. For instance, expansion of agriculture into existing forests is in most cases not a strategic option, even when that land offers high levels of suitability for cultivation. This report offers some proposals of alternative suitable areas for cropping to enhance food production and, at the same time, protect forestlands and protected areas.
- ➔ Land suitable for crop cultivation is not distributed evenly across the world, with regions such as Africa and South America showing opportunities for further expansion, while other regions such as the Near East have mostly reached their limit, and in some cases are experiencing a reduction in area under agriculture.
- ➔ Most agricultural production is practised on prime or good agricultural land. However, there are areas where population pressure and limited resources force farmers to practise agriculture on marginal land.
- ➔ Intensification is key: efforts to meet future demand for food must above all involve a more efficient, sustainable and productive use of existing agricultural land. It is critical to ensure that intensification is pursued in a far more sustainable manner than in the past.
- ➔ There is scope for significant increases in land productivity in most developing regions and for most types of crops. The bulk of increased food production should come from reductions in yield gap, the selection of crops suitable for agroecological conditions, and the adoption of sustainable management practices adapted to each crop.
- ➔ It is possible to enhance the productivity of marginal land by adopting practices that address factors limiting their potential. Such practices must be adapted to local conditions and need to be supported by appropriate financial and policy instruments.
- ➔ Among the solutions that can enhance the potential of land to increase crop production, irrigation and other water harvesting techniques can alleviate constraints related to soil moisture by ensuring an adequate water supply to crops. There is substantial scope for further increases in water productivity for agriculture, but much less for increases in water use, particularly in arid regions. Potential increases in water use need to be assessed not only at farm level, but also at river basin and aquifer levels to ensure sustainability.
- ➔ The availability and quality of soil nutrients is a major constraint limiting production in many areas. This issue can be addressed by introducing better agricultural practices: nutrient-use efficiency; balanced fertilization with integration of organic inputs to avoid the underuse, misuse and overuse of fertilizers; sustainable use of fertilizers; mechanization; adoption of adapted crop varieties; and promotion of agrobiodiversity including the cultivation of opportunity crops adapted to specific conditions and cultures.
- ➔ Climate change affects land suitability for many crops, with suitable areas for given crops usually moving to higher latitudes and altitudes. For some crops, agricultural water demand will increase in future climate scenarios, while the available water resources will become more variable and less reliable.
- ➔ In areas where land and water resources are scarce, satisfying competing societal objectives (agriculture, industry, urban development, energy, biodiversity conservation) often implies trade-offs and difficult choices in resource allocation. Integrated land and water resource planning provides tools to manage the competition for resources and optimize resource use.
- ➔ In degraded agricultural lands, there is scope for restoring the production potential to increase production and productivity using sustainable management practices and techniques, while also addressing and eliminating the root causes and drivers of land degradation.
- ➔ Land use is determined by a combination of biophysical and socioeconomic factors, including demography, market, land tenure and policies, and does not necessarily respond to technocratic land-use planning logics. At global level, trade will continue to compensate for the increasing discrepancy between production capacity and demand for agricultural products.
This chapter discusses the potential for increasing production and productivity of agricultural land to respond to the increasing demand for food and other agricultural products and the environmental and socioeconomic challenges described previously. It focuses primarily on crop production, the primary source of food, for which advanced modelling capacities exist. Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 discuss the technical, policy and institutional measures needed to realize this potential.
An increase in agricultural production can be achieved either through an expansion of agricultural activity (increasing the land area used for farming, if possible and without compromising other ecosystems) or through intensification (increasing production on existing agricultural land). In turn, intensification can be achieved through an increase in the yield of a given crop or in the number of times the land is used during the year (cropping intensity), or through a combination of both. Given the scale of degradation of agricultural land (cropland and pastureland) discussed in Chapter 2, the restoration of degraded agricultural lands and soils could significantly contribute to intensification (increasing production on existing agricultural land).
In many regions, crop yields fall short of those that could be obtained with appropriate management. The difference between actual yield and attainable yield is known as the “yield gap”. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa, the yield of rainfed crops is only 24 percent of that possible if appropriate management practices were adopted (FAO, 2022). Knowing the extent and geographical distribution of yield gaps is essential in order to develop strategies for enhanced production: comparing actual and attainable crop yields makes it possible to identify areas where an increase in food production is achievable through improved management practices.
Yield gaps and the potential of land to increase production were analysed for cropland under rainfed and irrigated conditions following the Global Agro-Ecological Zoning methodology developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and FAO (Fischer et al., 2021) and using the latest available GAEZ assessment (FAO and IIASA, 2025a). GAEZ data and methods are described in the next section and presented in more detail in the Annex.
Using IPCC climate scenarios, GAEZ was also used to assess the impact of climate change on land suitability, crop water demand and crop production potential for selected crop groups.
Suitability analysis
Crop production is the result of a combination of climatic, edaphic, biotic, physiographic and socioeconomic factors. For a given location, the suitability of land varies based on crop type and management practices. Globally available data on climate, soil and terrain make it possible to assess the suitability of land for many crops (Fischer et al., 2021).
The GAEZ methodology matches available global georeferenced datasets on agroclimatic, soil and terrain conditions with specific crop requirements to determine suitable agricultural land-use options and model the agronomically attainable yield for the production of 52 crops.f These factors are used to evaluate the suitability of land and the production potential of individual crops under various input and management conditions; estimate yield gaps by comparing actual yield with attainable yield; and identify hotspots where more productive land use is possible.
Suitability analysis is at the core of the GAEZ methodology, providing information on the potential and limitations of land for each type of crop. GAEZ considers seven suitability classes, ranging from highly suitable to unsuitable. When land is highly suitable for a given crop, and considering optimal management conditions, it is expected that the land can produce more than 80 percent of the attainable yield. This capacity decreases progressively until it reaches zero for unsuitable land.
Land suitability refers to the potential of land to support productive agriculture and is influenced by two main variables: agroclimatic and agroedaphic factors. Agroclimatic factors include temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and the length of the growing period, all of which influence crop growth and development. Agroedaphic factors relate to soil and terrain characteristics, which can affect root development, water availability, nutrient supply and overall soil productivity (see Box 2). Understanding how crop requirements align with both agroclimatic and agroedaphic factors, combined with the application of appropriate management practices, is essential for enhancing agricultural production and land productivity.
Box 2Soil and terrain factors considered in Global Agro-Ecological Zoning
- Nutrient availability
- Soil nutrient retention capacity
- Soil depth
- Oxygen availability
- Salinity and sodicity levels
- Calcium carbonate and gypsum levels
- Soil workability
- Slope
Land suitability analysis provides the biophysical assessment of the potential to enhance productivity. To consider competing land uses and ecological/sustainability constraints, integrated land-use planning (ILUP) is needed at different levels of decision-making to address challenges and competing demands (FAO, forthcoming).
