The potential exists to feed the 9.7 billion people predicted to make up the world’s population by 2050 and the approximately 10.3 billion people when the world population is projected to peak around 2085. The conditions in which this production takes place will determine the associated environmental, social and economic costs.
Globally, the land suitable for cultivation is substantial, totalling more than 4 billion ha. However, the potential for agricultural expansion is limited, as further land conversion to cropland would impact other ecosystems, including forests, grasslands and wetlands.
The assessment of land suitability for cultivation in this report is based only on the characteristics of the land; it does not consider existing land use and whether any conversion to cropland is acceptable. For instance, expansion of agriculture into existing forests is not a strategic option, even when the land offers high levels of suitability for cultivation.
The report provides alternative areas for sustainable expansion to enhance food production and, at the same time, safeguard forestlands and protected areas, thereby responding to sustainable land-use commitments under the Rio Conventions (CBD, UNCCD, UNFCCC) and the Sustainable Development Goals.
Land suitable for crop cultivation is not distributed evenly across the world, with regions such as Africa and South America showing opportunities for further expansion, while other regions such as the Near East have mostly reached their limits and, in some cases, are experiencing a reduction in area under agriculture.
Climate change affects land suitability for many crops, with suitable areas for given crops tending to move to higher latitudes and altitudes. For some crops, agricultural water demand will increase in future climate scenarios, while the available water resources will become more variable and less reliable. Climate change is expected to cause an increase in extreme events such as droughts. For agriculture to adapt to more frequent droughts, it is expected that areas normally under rainfed agriculture will be increasingly equipped for irrigation. As soon as such areas are equipped, it is likely that supplementary irrigation will be used to increase cropping intensities and yields.
Most agricultural production is practised on prime or good agricultural land. However, there are areas where population pressure and limited resources force farmers to practise agriculture on marginal land.
Efforts to meet future demand for food must above all involve a more efficient, sustainable and productive use of existing agricultural land (sustainable intensification is key). It is critical to ensure that intensification is pursued in a far more sustainable manner than it was in the past. For intensification including water management techniques, water accounting is key in order to assess the consequences for water availability for environmental flows in river basins and aquifers.
There is scope for significant increases in land productivity in most developing regions and for most types of crops. This increase can come mainly from a reduction in yield gap through the selection of suitable crops and the adoption of sustainable management practices for each crop.
There is also substantial scope for increases in water productivity, but much less for increases in water use, especially in arid areas. Water productivity can be increased by adopting improved crop farming practices and water management techniques such as water harvesting measures and demand-based irrigation.
It is possible to enhance the productivity of marginal land through suitable land use, adopting practices to address the limiting production factors and promoting appropriate enabling environments.
